Cyber-physical Attacks: Dawn of a New Age in Cyber-warfare?

Cyber attacks are frequently in the news, including the new phenomenon of cyber warfare. But how worried should we be? Whilst other investigations of this topic look at the means of attack, this paper explores the impact. Can cyber attacks really have a significant impact? This paper will be of interest to anyone who has an interest in the application of cyber power in international relations.a aThis article is based on an MSc dissertation written as part of the MSc in Information Security at the ISG, Royal Holloway, University of London. The full thesis is published on the ISG’s website at https://www.royalholloway.ac. uk/isg/. In the control room, engineers nervously watch their screens. Can this really be happening? Before their eyes, some malevolent force is controlling their computer and, one by one, vital components within their network were shut down, condemning thousands of locals to a night of misery without power, in freezing temperatures. If this sounds like a scene from a Hollywood blockbuster, it is in fact real life. These events occurred on 23rd December 2015 at the Prykarpattyaoblenergo power distribution control centre in western Ukraine following a cyber-attack. The ability to hack and remotely control a remote computer is not new, but cyber-attacks influencing physical space is a more recent phenomenon and one which is capturing the headlines. Cyber-attacks against computer systems which only compromised information have been a known downside of an increasingly interconnected world for some time, but beyond private data entering the public space or the loss of a website for a period of time, what was the actual impact from a national perspective? Individual companies may suffer through cyber-crime, but such incidents are not going to fundamentally change government policy. Are cyber physical attacks somehow different? Can an impact, initiated by a cyber-weapon, that is manifested in the physical domain be sufficiently serious to be comparable to that which could be inflicted by more traditional means of warfare, for example the destruction caused by high explosive? In what has become a polemic debate, opinion is divided between advocates of a revolutionary new method of warfare, and those who believe it to be an out of control marketing campaign. Cyber Physical Attack A particular category of cyber attack that, deliberately or accidentally, adversely affect the physical domain by affecting the control and communication infrastructure which connect devices, sensors, actuators and other mechanisms with their operators. In examining the potential of cyber warfare, a number of academic and practical questions present themselves. How does cyberwarfare fit into our understanding of conflict, and is it time to review Clauswitzian theories of conflict (emphasising physical violence and the primacy of the state in conflict) which date back to the 18th century? What impact could a cyber-attack have against an advanced military platform, or for that matter against a military force with very low reliance on technology? And can a cyber-attack bring a nation to its knees? For the purpose of brevity, this paper will focus on the last question (at least in part). Can cyber physical attacks have an impact at a strategic level? I will also be focusing only on the use of aggressive cyber activity in support of political objectives, not those of a criminal nature for financial gain, although the line is occasionally blurred.